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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."